Friday evening, Benfica will play host to their neighbors at the Estádio da Luz in a match that promises to be entertaining.

After the embarrassment we witnessed last weekend at the Estádio Nacional against B SAD, the encarnados look to put that behind them with a Lisbon Derby.

Leading up to the match, news from down the road may have potentially made things slightly easier for Jorge Jesus in his preparations.

Sporting captain Sebastiàn Coates tested positive for COVID, and he will be a significant absence for this match. Further up the pitch, João Palhinha is also unavailable, having walked off in tears at the weekend with a hamstring injury that may keep him out for at least three weeks.

When we look at this matchup on paper, it’s a fairly even contest with both sides at full strength. Now, with the visitors missing arguably their two most influential players, things could change.

This will be the 312th meeting between these same city rivals, with Benfica having the historical advantage.

• 136 Wins in all Competitions (44%) | 81 Wins in the League (47%)
• 110 Losses in all Competitions (35%) | 48 Losses in the League (28%)
• 65 Draws in all Competitions (21%) | 45 Draws in the League (28%)

If we want to look at the goals, Benfica also goes in with a significant advantage, having scored 527 while conceding 474.

Knowing that history is great to look back on, none of that matters once the match kicks off. A derby is always a derby, and generally, form goes out the window. Nonetheless, both sides come into the match in good form.

For Benfica, looking back on their previous ten matches in all competitions, they’ve won five, drew three, and lost two. Both defeats came at the hands of Bayern Munich.

Breaking that down to league play, three wins, a draw, and a loss from their last five.

As for the visitors, their current form is impressive.

Ten straight wins, which contributed to their recent progression into the next round of the UEFA Champions League. We have to go back to September 28th to find Sporting’s last defeat (1-0 @ Dortmund).

So while statistically, it all looks great, what can we expect on Friday?

Missing Palhinha and Coates is a massive loss for Ruben Amorim, and truth be told, it should be an equally enormous advantage for Jorge Jesus.

Many will consider the spine of Sporting to begin with Adan and then move its way through Coates and Palhinha. With both not in the equation, others will have to step in.

Let’s not kid ourselves – both these players don’t have equal replacements in the squad. The same could be said for Benfica. For example, I’d compare this to us being without Weigl and Otamendi.

Whether Neto starts at the back for Sporting, or Esgaio plays as one of the back three, their defense will feel the absence of their leader. For context, he’s only not started in four matches in all competitions, and one of those was a 1-5 defeat in matchday one of the UEFA Champions League.

Is Benfica going to be able to expose these absences?

This should give us an advantage in the midfield. Meanwhile, Ignacio’s lack of experience could be a focal point for our offense in the attack.

Will we see a front three built for speed with Rafa, Darwin, and Everton? Or is Jorge Jesus going to opt for more of a presence in the box, handing Seferovic or Yaremchuk a start?

Let us not forget that the Swiss international has been known to find the back of the net in these fixtures.

Defensively, Sporting statistically prefers to attack down their left side (97 crosses). That means either Gilberto or Lazaro will have to pay close attention to Sarabia and potentially Nuno Santos or Matheus Reis, who will play down that side.

On the right side, Grimaldo will be tasked with stopping Pedro Gonçalves, who has proven to be a headache for opposing defenders. Although he only has four goals in the league, he’s scored a total of eight in all competitions.

While both offenses are capable of finding the net, we will get to see the league’s best offense (Benfica – 34 goals) up against the league’s most resolute defense (Sporting – 4 goals). But again, those four goals conceded came with a backline including Coates, who featured 90 minutes in all 12 league matches.

Can Benfica hand Sporting their first defeat in two months, and in the league, leapfrogging them in the standings? Or, despite some absences, will Ruben Amorim mastermind a perfect game plan to come away with at least a point?

How do you feel about the match? Confident? Uncertain? Leave your thoughts and prediction in the comments below.