In Athens, Benfica will visit Arsenal in their home away from home, in a match where the encarnados are forced to score. Could this be the match that injects a bit of confidence into the squad?

In their home fixture last week, Benfica struggled in the first half to grow into the match. During the opening 20 or so minutes, they were forced to defend deep in their half, trying to control Arsenal’s offensive movements.

After that initial phase of pressure, Benfica managed to get control of match and began to see more of the ball, but even despite the lack of possession early on, Arsenal didn’t create much apart from that shocking miss from Aubameyang.

Needing to score at least one goal at the Giorgios Karaiskakis Stadium in order to have a chance of progressing, Benfica will need to approach this match slightly differently than what we same in the 1st leg in Rome.

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS SAY

Both sides are going through an uncommon and unexpected season thus far.

For Mikel Arteta’s side, despite having a squad full of high quality players, the Spanish manager has yet to find consistency and stability on the pitch.

At the moment, the gunners are 11th in the Premier League, with 10 victories, four draws, and 11 defeats, totaling 34 points. With the chances of finishing in the top five quickly fading, that puts more pressure on the North London side to book their ticket into next season’s Champions League by winning the Europa League.

With very little income coming into the club due to the current circumstances of the pandemic, and a salary sheet that will make your eyes water, failure to guarantee that money from Champions League football could really hurt Arsenal.

In 2021, they have yet to win two consecutive league matches, and from their last five in the Premier League, they’ve managed one win, three losses, and one draw.

As you can see, this Arsenal is far from the very talented and scary sides we saw during the Thierry Henry days for example. But, with that said, it would be an enormous mistake to overlook Arteta’s side.

A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE

This will be the fourth meeting between these sides in Europe, with Arsenal yet to defeat Benfica.

The first match in 1991 ended in a one goal draw, with goals from Isaías and Rocky Rocastle. In the deciding match of that elimination round, like most of us know, with the exception of Rafa clearly, Sven-Goran Eriksson’s side traveled to Higbury and defeated Arsenal 1-3 in extra time.

Of the three matches they’ve played in Europe, both sides have scored in each, with the cycle likely to continue in Athens.

COINCIDENCE OR NOT

In 1991, Benfica was the home side in the 1st leg at the old Estádio da Luz. Isaías gave Benfica the lead in that match 15 minutes in, while Rocky Rocastle leveled it at one in the 17th minute, totaling two minutes between goals.

Last week in Rome, Benfica took the lead in the 55th minute after Pizzi converted a penalty. Shortly after, or more precisely, two minutes later, Saka leveled the score at one.

The final result in both 1st legs was the same, the time between goals was the same, and Benfica will be the away side in the 2nd leg both times…

These coincidences are part of life and football, but could this be a sign of what we are going to see in Athens? I surely hope so.

EXPECTATION

Between these two sides, they are as unpredictable as it gets. On our podcast last week, I predicted a boring and cagey match, with a 1-1 draw. Truth be told, the 1st leg wasn’t a brilliant performance from either side, and I got the result spot on.

For Thursday’s match, I’m expecting a bit of the same, although Benfica’s need to score may create a few more opportunities for both. Either way, I expect a tactical and cautious approach from both sides, at least in the opening 45 minutes in order to not concede early.

Jorge Jesus is likely to go back to a defensive line of three, with the starting XI not expected to be much different than what he fielded in Rome.

One likely change in the defense is the introduction of Gilberto for Diogo Gonçalves. And in the attack, I expect the Portuguese manager to ride his luck with Darwin.

The young Uruguayan is clearly lacking confidence, but, in Athens, he will be the difference maker.

Just as it happened in 1991, 30 years later, Benfica is going to once again eliminate Arsenal, and again in extra time. After 90 minutes, I’m expecting a one goal draw, and… Darwin scores the decisive goal in extra time to book Benfica’s ticket into the next round of the competition.

Arsenal 1-1 Benfica (1-2 after extra time)